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This system represents the latest development in the evolution of the 3-Way concept. In its evolution through three stages thus far, it has become one of the most effective methods available.
Bet Selection
This is one of the most unique bet selection methods used by any baccarat method. It is designed to use the randomness of the game against itself.
Decisions are recorded in blocks of 3 horizontally one beneath the other. For our purposes in this system, when a decision which lines up with the decision above it is the same as the decision above it, we will call that a ‘Closed’ decision. If it is opposite the decision above it, then we will call it ‘Open’. In the example below, the first decision on the 2nd line is closed (in red), the 2nd decision on the 2nd line is open and the third decision is closed. (Ties are always ignored and never played.) Note that I circle closed decisions.
B P B
B B B
Obviously as you can see, when beginning a shoe 4 decisions must be recorded before you can have your first Open or Closed decision. Therefore, we must always observe the first 4 decisions of every shoe, but we can play each decision after that unless there is a “No Bet” situation which will be explained later.
In the above example, the first 3 decisions in the shoe were Bank, Player, Bank. The 4th decision was Bank and was recorded beneath the first decision. Since it was the same as the first decision of the shoe, we circled it and we label it as a Closed decision. The 5th decision of the shoe was also a Bank and was recorded beneath the 2nd decision of the shoe. Since it was opposite the 2nd decision, we consider it an Open decision. Likewise the 6th decision is recorded beneath the 3rd decision. The 7th decision is recorded beneath the 4th decision, the 8th beneath the 5th etc.
If the next 3 decisions (7th through the 9th) were Player, Bank, Player, our chart would look like this:
B P B
B B B
P B P
The Progression
We are going to use a progression in this, but it is probably going to be one of the most controlled progression you’ve ever seen. Due to the inherent nature of 3-Way, you will seldom make a bet greater than 5 units. And also, we are only going to chase losses up so far before we drop back and get things under control.
Let’s first look at the progression. It is divided into groups of 3. It goes 1-2-3, 2-3-4, 3-4-6, 4-6-8. I seriously doubt that you will ever go any further than this, but if you should, the last series would be 5-7-9. You begin by recording a 1 on the side that won the last decision. If that side wins, you then record a 2, if it wins again, then go to 3. If that side wins 3 in a row, you have completed the first set of 3 so you go to the next set which would be 2-3-4. You never go to the next set until a side has won 3 decisions in a row completing the current set. If at any time during the set a side loses a decision, you go back to the first bet in that set. For instance, if a side is just starting with the first set (1-2-3) and the first 2 bets (1 and 2) are won, but the 3 unit decision is lost, then you go back to a 1 on that side. Likewise, if a side has won the first 3 decisions and is now on the 2nd set of 2-3-4, and it wins the 2 unit decision but loses the following 3 unit decision, the progression will return to 2 because you must go back to the first level in that set. And the first level of the progression in the 2nd set is 2 because the 2nd set is 2-3-4.
Now, if a side loses 2 decisions in a row at any time, then the progression on that side ceases until there is another decision on that side. When this happens, the progression starts at the beginning of the first set with 1 unit and the progression continues as usual (1-2-3, 2-3-4, 3-4-6, etc.).
So, to summarize so far, a side must win 3 decisions in a row to progress to the next set. If at anytime during a set one decision is lost, then that side must revert back to the first bet in that set. If 2 decisions in a row are lost, then betting ceases on that side until there is another decision on that side, then betting begins again with 1 unit and progresses through the first set as usual. Below is an example of our chart where we record the Open and Closed decisions. (We maintain 2 charts as we play. By using the chart discussed earlier, we know whether a decision is Open or Closed. Then we record the progression on a chart like the one below. Note: Decisions are highlighted.)
Open Closed
1
2
3
1 1
2
3
2
3
1 2
1 3
2 2
1 3
4
Figure 1
There would be “No Bet” here because both Open and Closed are at 1 in the progression.
Also, No Bet here because both sides are at 2.
That should give you the main idea.
Now, the way we arrive at our betting decision is by taking the difference between the 2 totals. For example, the bet on the decision illustrated below is 2 units.
Open Closed
3 1
At this point many of you are assuming that the bet will be 2 units on Open, right? Wrong! The bet will be 2 units on Closed. Under normal play, we always make the bet on the side with the lesser total. So for the purpose of illustration, taking the above example where we are going to make a bet of 2 units on Closed, and our 3-Way chart looks like this:
B P B
P B
The bet will be 2 units on Bank, because that is what it will take to have a ‘like’ or “Closed” decision. Of course if the decision turns out to be a Bank, we win and our next charts look like this:
Open Closed
3 1
1 2 B P B
P B B
At this point we will record a win of 2 units and our next bet will be for 1 unit on “Open” which means we will be betting 1 unit on Bank because the decision above it is Player and we are looking for an opposite or Open decision. This process is illustrated more plainly in the accompanying Excel demo files. You might want to take a look at one of them before proceeding any further in the manual.
That is the main heart of the system and it is just that simple and easy.
Table Buy In And Bankroll
At the beginning of each shoe you should have 25 units to play that shoe. We will generally not risk more than 25 units on any one shoe. It seldom happens with this system that you will lose a whole 25 unit buy in and sometimes when things are really going your way, you will win 20 units or even more. I have actually reached +30 units in a shoe a couple of times.
You shouldn’t need more than 125 units of lifetime bankroll to play 3-Way Plus. So far, I think my largest draw down has been less than 60 units and that was the result of 2 big losses in a row. So, I think 125 units should be plenty, but as always, the larger your bankroll, the more relaxed and comfortable you will be, so the more the better.
When To Quit
When playing 3-Way Plus, you often experience pendulum like swings. Also, you can usually see the shoe going through definite cycles. As you learn to read these swings and cycles you will get better and better at exiting each shoe at the optimum point.
As an example, if you start out losing and get down -6 units, but then things turn around and you make a come back, you can use +6 as a milestone (positive deviations sometimes tend to reflect the negative deviations up to a point). If you manage to get higher than +6, then that shoe may have some potential but be aware. If the shoe takes another down turn, better get out then. However, if the shoe only makes it back to say +4, then you lose a bet, that might be the prudent place to exit.
I usually start out looking for a positive swing to equal the negative swing. That is, if I go down -8 units at the beginning of a shoe, when it turns around I will at first shoot for a +8 or close to it. If I get beyond that point, then I proceed with caution and will generally get out at the first sign of trouble. Often on shoes that exhibit a swing like this, when it does turn around, it will make a positive ascent fairly rapidly with little resistance. Oh, you will lose a couple of hands here and there, but you generally won’t run into another long negative run. However, if recovery is an up and down battle, if I get a positive swing of about 12 units I am very careful from that point on. When recovery is a struggle, it seems that getting back more than 12 or 13 units doesn’t happen very often. However, if recovery comes fairly easily with no serious trouble, then the potential for having a good shoe is greater. So, if you get down by -12 units or more, consider carefully the difficulty you have while attempting a recovery. You may be lucky to get back 12 units. You might even wind up having to stop at -2 or -3. Try to keep losses in these situations under 7 units because you can normally make that up with one shoe. You can’t let it bother you if you quit at about even or with a small win or loss and the shoe turns around and goes on to be a good winner. You will have some good wins and you will also occasionally avoid some big losses by not being greedy.
Guidelines
I am about to put forth a few more general guidelines for when to quit etc. Understand that these guidelines can be very helpful to new players who are learning and becoming familiar with 3-Way Plus. To use a metaphor, it is like a kid who has just gotten his first bike and doesn’t know how to ride very well. Training wheels are put on the bike to keep him from falling over while he is learning. The guidelines are like training wheels. Eventually, as you gain experience, you will want to take the training wheels off because they will no longer be needed, in fact they may even be a hindrance in some cases. Experience with the cycles of a shoe and with how 3-Way Plus interacts with each shoe is a much better and stronger foundation than relying entirely on a set of rules or guidelines. However, these guidelines are meant to point the way and to be used as reference points of consideration when you are making that critical decision of whether to play on or exit the shoe. After you have played 50 to 100 shoes, experience and skill will begin to take over and the guidelines won’t be nearly as important as they are when you are first beginning. Experience truly is the best teacher and it is the big factor that creates consistent winners. But I have found that even after playing hundreds of shoes with 3-Way Plus, I still give serious consideration to these points when making that critical decision of whether to exit a shoe or continue playing.
So, with those things in mind, let’s look at some of the guidelines. The first is a bit of a repeat of what we have already discussed about pendulum type swings and shoe cycles.
Guideline #1: If you begin a shoe by getting down a few units, look for a positive swing and set your stop goal for a corresponding up swing or perhaps 1 or 2 units short of that. If you are struggling to recover, a positive swing of 12 or 13 units may be all you can get. Example: Start out losing by -7 units and you come back a few units but then get knocked back down by losing 3 in a row, then come back a few units and get knocked down again, set your stop goal at +7, but be willing to stop at +5. Start out at -5, shoot for +4 or more, but be willing to stop at +3. (Note: This doesn’t apply if you start out losing 1 to 3 or even 4 units. That is fairly common and not a good indicator of what the shoe will ultimately yield.) If you get down by 12 units and are struggling to recover, be looking to quit around even. It is not too often that a shoe experiences a positive deviation of more than 12 units (when you are struggling) although it can happen. I do recall having been down 19 units and I came all the way back to +1. But come backs like that are the exception rather than the rule.
If I get behind in a shoe, and am really struggling to catch up, I begin looking to exit the shoe with the smallest loss possible. I’m still looking for the optimum exit point, I still watch the cycles of positive and negative swings, but I may have to resign myself to taking a small loss, so I will try to get out with a loss of less than 7 units if at all possible (and it usually is). Better to lose 4 or 5 units than 20 or 25, right? Also remember, if and when you do make a pretty big come back, don’t push it. Usually the shoe will turn around and kick your butt again and before you know it you are back down 12 or 15 units (remember the shoe will tend to run in cycles).
Another guideline to use in determining when to exit a shoe is this. You will notice your total winnings in the shoe hitting peaks and plateaus. For example, you may hit a plateau of say +6 or +7 units, and stay around that level for a couple of decisions or more, and then go down a little but return to that plateau, then you hit a spurt where you go up to 10 or 12 units, as soon as you start back down, quit. That might look something like this: +1, +2, +4, +5, +6, +5, +4, +2, +3, +4, +6, +5, +7, +8, +9, +11, +10 (stop here). You see the first plateau was around +6, then it dropped but came back, then shot up to +11. When it started back down, that was our stopping point. Note that the use of +6 or +7 is arbitrary to illustrate a point. The plateau could be any level. Also note what I mean when I say “plateau”. In the example just illustrated, your first high point was a +6. You can recognize a “plateau” because it has a high point surrounded on each side by slightly lower values. So the first “plateau” I’m referring to is at the 4th through 6th decisions of +5, +6, +5. Then the level dropped to +2 but then started another ascent to the point it reached +6 for a second time. Then the next decision was lost creating another plateau of +4, +6, +5. After that, our win level shot straight up to +11. We lost 1 unit after that leaving us at +10, that is often a good place to stop.
Most commonly, you will see your level of winnings peak at various points and you may not see a definable plateau. Playing in the conservative mode, you will look to get out of a shoe after your winnings have reached a definite “peak” or “high point” for the third or fourth time. As soon as you see a definite peak for the third time, it is time to consider whether or not to quit the shoe at that point. For example, say your winnings went like this:
-1, -2, 0, +1, 0, +2, +3, +4, +3, +1, +3, +4, +5, +6, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +10, +8. You would stop at +8 because you now have your 3rd high point defined. In this example, your first high point (or peak) was +4. Never consider any high point less than +4. In other words, even though +1 was technically the first peak, I don’t consider myself having reached a high point until at least +4. The second high point in the above example was +6 and then it was followed by the third peak of +10. We stop with the first loss after that point which was +8. Until we lost the decision at +10, we didn’t know that we had reached the third peak.
Guideline #2: If you don’t see definite plateaus forming, then you should quit after your winnings peak for a third time. (In reality, the plateaus are contained within the peaks and that is really all you have to be concerned with. But I thought it might help you understand the ebb and flow better to point out both.) Remember, don’t count anything less than +4 as a high point.
Here is another thing to watch out for when using the peaks as a determination of when to quit. Suppose you have a pattern similar to this one: +1, +3, +4, +6, +8, +7, +5, +6, +5, +4, +2, +1, +3, +2. The first peak was at +8, the second was at +6, but the third was less than +4, it peaked the third time at +3. In this case, I do not quit at +2. In a case like this, most shoes will give you another shot at getting back near +6, so I would keep playing until I reached a high point back up around +6 or so. If I continue to struggle, however, and the next couple of peaks are less than +4, then I take whatever positive total I can get.
Many shoes will return to a general peak or high point several times. That high point could be anywhere from +4 to +8 or +10. In essence, the shoe will tell you about how much it is going to give you. In this case, take what the shoe is giving and be patient. Even if it is only 2 or 3 units, the larger wins will come from time to time and make up for it. Patience and Self Discipline are huge factors in your gambling success.
Some shoes play easily and seem to be in good sync and give very little trouble. It is worth a little extra risk to stick with a shoe like that a little longer (regardless of the peaks and plateaus) because they will sometimes yield those big wins in excess of 20 units. Also, if a shoe like that does hit a snag, it will usually come back and you can get near your previous high point, but if that does happen, definitely quit when you get back to the previous high point or close to it. But what I’m trying to say is always consider the amount of difficulty you are experiencing. If a shoe plays easily and you don’t have any serious draw downs (you never lose more than 2 or 3 maybe 4 decisions in a row) to that point, then give this more consideration than the peaks. It could be that you will go on to have a good win. However, if you lose 3 or 4 in a row two times, then it is time to look to get out with a decent profit. Don’t push it because the shoe has now become dangerous.
Another phenomenon that you will experience on occasion is a shoe in which you get up by 10 to 12 units, maybe more, but suddenly the bottom drops out and your win total drops like a rock. Be sure to get out of this type shoe with a profit, even if it is only 3 units. Better to get out with some profit than to wind up losing 20 units and I’ve seen it happen many times on shoes that behaved that way.
Now, back to the guidelines. If your total winnings ever reach +12 or more before you come to a stopping point, you may be in a very profitable type shoe which I call a “Super shoe”. In this type of shoe, you will often win +20 to +30 units. The following guideline pertains to this situation.
Guideline #3: Once you are up by 12 units or more, you no longer use peaks or high points as an indication of when to quit. You should continue to play until you have lost 1/3 or your winnings from your greatest high point in the shoe. So when you reach +12 or +13, you will not stop unless you lose down to +8. At +14 or +15 you will continue to play unless you fall to +9 or +10. Up +18, quit at +12 etc.
Before continuing, let me explain some of the theory behind 3-Way Plus. It was devised to use the randomness of the game against itself and it does this very well. As long as a shoe does not fall into a definite pattern for a long period, then 3-Way will do very well. It was also designed to diminish the effect of streaks of Player or Bank. 3-Way Plus can deal with a streak of up to 5 Players or Banks in a row quite well. It is only beyond this point that it begins to have difficulty. So, since baccarat tends to be a fairly random game, and since we have greatly diminished the effects of long streaks, that is what makes 3-Way an overall winner. It turns the odds slightly in favor of the player, especially when the player exits the shoe at the proper point.
However, sometimes we encounter a shoe that has prolonged periods where it continues to reproduce the same pattern over and over or it has one of those long streaks of Player or Bank that goes for 6 decisions or more. These are the shoes that will create natural prolonged streaks of Open and Closed decisions in 3-Way Plus. And of course if a streak of Open or Closed continues long enough, we will lose the shoe. So, what are we to do when this happens?
As a general rule, shoes tend to continue to exhibit certain characteristics once that characteristic has been manifested. A shoe that starts out streaky may continue to have dominant streaks of Open and Closed decisions. A long run of Open or Closed decisions at the beginning of a shoe can be very hurtful. Shoes are very streaky can be difficult to beat. One option is to continue to play as normal and hope the shoe turns around. And in some cases it will and as you gain experience you will have a better feel for when this may or may not occur. But for now, I suggest adopting the following approach (in fact it is the way I always play).
When you encounter a long streak of either Open or Closed decisions, you can combat this by simply turning around and betting the other way. In other words, instead of betting on the side that has the smaller total, you bet on the side that has the largest total. Continue to bet the difference in the two totals.
Bet Open Closed
O3 3
NB 1 1
C2 2
C3 3
C2 2
O3 3
Figure 2
We will make this switch when either Open or Closed has won 5 decisions in a row. At this point we will turn around and bet with the streak which means, as I stated earlier, you will now place your bet on the side with the highest total instead of the lowest. Continue to bet with the streak until you lose one bet, then return to normal play, that is, betting on the side with the lowest total. See illustration below.
<At this point Open has won 5 in a row, so we now turn around and bet on Open (O3) until we lose a bet, then we return to normal play.
This is what I mean by turning the bet around and betting with the streak instead of against it.
Let me interject here that if an Open or Closed streak is caused by an abnormally long streak of Players or Banks don’t reverse your bets, but continue play like normal (betting opposite the highest total on the Open/Closed chart. 3-Way is designed to handle streaks of up to 5 Players or Banks in a row with no problem. Generally even in a streaky shoe, you won’t see too many more than that. Of course if the streak goes on to 12 or 14 in a row, you are going to get beat so I suggest that you stop betting after a streak of 7 in a row and wait for the Bank and or Player streak to end (wait for the streaking side of Player or Bank to lose a bet), then resume normal 3-Way Plus betting procedure. If an Open/Closed streak is caused by a regular combination of Players and Banks, then follow the procedure mentioned above for reversing your bets and also adhere to instructions below.
After we have turned the bet around and begin to bet with the streak, as I said, we continue to bet with the streak until we lose a bet. But, if we win enough bets to bring us to a total of +4 or more, then that is the time to stop and evaluate whether to quit at that point or to be more aggressive and play on. Whether you play conservatively or more aggressively can depend upon how the shoe was doing up to the point you reversed. If you were winning easily and you are more than a third of the way through the shoe, then the streak may have been an anomaly. The shoe may once again play in sync and produce a good profit. But if you have already been struggling, then you would probably want to get out with a small profit rather than risking disaster by continuing to play.
Another factor to consider is your total winnings in the session up to that point. If things have been going poorly or you’ve been struggling to get ahead and you need to lock up some positive units, then you should probably quit at +4 or so and not risk playing on. However, if you are ahead by 10 or 12 units or more in your session and it is still early (meaning you are playing your 2nd or 3rd shoe), then you might want to be more aggressive and play on in order to see what the shoe will ultimately give you. It is somewhat a matter of common sense.
Personally, I set 20 units as my daily win goal, then I let how far ahead or behind I am at that point influence how aggressively I play. If I’m already up 14 to 16 units, then I’ll take the 4 unit win and call it a day, especially if I’ve already played 3 or 4 shoes. But, as I said, if it is early in the session and I’m up by a decent total, then I will tend to be more aggressive in my play.
So that is in essence the 4th Guideline and is restated below.
Guideline #4: If there is a streak of Open decisions or Closed decisions that extends to 5 in a row, if the streak is composed of mixed Player and Bank decisions and not a long string of individual Player or Bank decisions, then turn around and bet with the streak (on the side with the greatest total instead of the smallest total). Continue to bet with the streak until you reach +4 units or more or until you lose one bet, then resume normal 3-Way Plus bet selection.
Despite all our efforts, you will have shoes that simply won’t cooperate. You will take a loss occasionally. But never fear, the average shoes that produce 6 to 8 units profit and the occasional very good shoes that produce 20 units or more will make up for them.
Recommendation
I would recommend that if you do lose a shoe, don’t play against that deck any more. Change casinos and look for another game. If that is not possible, then take a long break and let a couple of shoes go by before rejoining the game. It often seems that patterns can be carried over from one shoe to the next, especially if the cards are being hand shuffled. Of course, most casinos use shuffle machines now. And when playing against a shuffle machine and I lose a shoe, even though the next shoe will be a different set of cards and not the same shoe I just played, I will still usually try to change tables. The reason is that shoe characteristics are often the result of the way new cards are prepared before being put into play. And it usually takes several trips through a shuffle machine before a shoe is totally randomized from its starting point. And, since the same individual probably prepared the new cards for both shoes, they may have similar characteristics and play out in a similar way. I’ve noticed this phenomenon time and again over the years so that is why I mention it here.
A word of caution for you “Big Bac” players. In Big Bac, the shoe is passed around to each player who has an opportunity to deal, consequently the cards get pretty mutilated during the course of only one shoe and a new set of 8 decks are put into play after each shoe. Naturally each casino has its own way to shuffle the decks or prepare the decks for play. Though I may get some argument from some experts, it is my personal belief that shuffle patterns and even the method in which cards are prepared and put into play (even if a shuffle machine is used) can affect the outcome because of the shoe characteristics produced. Therefore, if you are playing Big Bac you may find yourself winning more at some casinos than others. If their shuffle is favorable to 3-Way (which, as I said, is designed to hold its own very well against highly random shoes that produce Player or Banker streaks of less than 6 decisions), then you may find yourself doing very well at that casino. But, to be on the safe side, if you lose a shoe playing Big Bac, then it might be a good idea to sit out a couple of shoes and just observe (play on paper) how things go at that casino before continuing play. If it is just a normal loss, then things should right themselves on the next shoe or at least by the 3rd shoe. If not, observe some more, you might have a problem at that casino. But remember this is only a suggestion for Big Bac.
Edited by verrengia - 20/10/2009, 19:55
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